The European Union is cautiously navigating the complex geopolitical landscape following the hypothetical downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and is actively exploring the potential lifting of sanctions to engage with the new leadership. A non-paper, an informal document used for internal discussions among member states, outlines a preliminary framework for a phased approach to sanctions removal, contingent upon the evolving situation on the ground and the behavior of the new ruling entity. This cautious optimism is tempered by significant concerns regarding terrorism, particularly the role of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former Al-Qaeda affiliate now at the helm of power.
The EU’s proposed approach involves a step-by-step lifting of sanctions across various sectors. The document suggests easing restrictions on transportation, potentially allowing Syrian Arab Airlines and other carriers to resume operations between Syria and the EU. This move aims to facilitate civilian travel and reconnect Syria with the international community. Furthermore, the EU is considering lifting the ban on exporting oil and gas technology and easing restrictions on participation in infrastructure projects and financing. This would signal a significant shift in policy, opening opportunities for European companies to contribute to Syria’s reconstruction and economic recovery.
The economic revitalization of Syria is another key consideration in the EU’s approach. The non-paper proposes lifting restrictions on high-value commercial assets, such as vehicles, to enable Syrian businesses to relocate and operate within the country. This measure aims to stimulate economic activity and create opportunities for local businesses. Moreover, the EU recognizes the importance of re-establishing financial ties with Syria. The document suggests reopening banking channels between Syrian and EU banks, facilitating financial transactions and fostering economic cooperation.
However, the EU’s cautious approach is underscored by the prominent role of HTS in the new Syria. The document explicitly states that any delisting of HTS as a terrorist organization must be decided by the UN Security Council before being implemented by the EU. This emphasizes the international community’s shared responsibility in addressing the threat of terrorism and ensuring that Syria does not become a haven for extremist groups. The EU’s willingness to consider delisting HTS is contingent on a comprehensive assessment of the group’s evolution and its commitment to renouncing terrorism. The potential for foreign fighters to join HTS in Syria is a significant concern, and the EU is determined to prevent any resurgence of terrorist activity.
Furthermore, the EU’s proposed sanctions relief is carefully targeted to avoid benefiting Bashar al-Assad and his affiliates. The document explicitly states that Assad and his associates will remain subject to sanctions, ensuring accountability for past human rights abuses and preventing them from profiting from the lifting of restrictions. This nuanced approach reflects the EU’s commitment to supporting the Syrian people while holding the former regime accountable.
The EU’s preliminary framework for lifting sanctions represents a delicate balancing act. On the one hand, the EU recognizes the need to engage with the new leadership in Syria and support the country’s reconstruction. On the other hand, the EU remains deeply concerned about the potential for terrorism and the role of HTS. The cautious, phased approach outlined in the non-paper underscores the EU’s commitment to a stable, democratic, and terrorism-free Syria. The ongoing discussions and potential agreement among EU foreign affairs ministers will shape the future of EU-Syria relations and play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of the country’s recovery and its reintegration into the international community. The EU’s approach is not without risks, but it represents a carefully calibrated effort to navigate the complexities of the Syrian situation and contribute to a positive outcome for the Syrian people. The international community will be closely watching the EU’s next steps and their impact on the future of Syria.
