Germany’s real choice on election day: Jamaica, Kenya or Mickey Mouse?

BERLIN — With just over three weeks to go until Germany’s election, and with the three largest parties in a virtual dead heat, gauging the likely coalition options has become more complex than ever. 

Just a few weeks ago, the only question on most election watchers’ minds was whether the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) — who led the polls with as much as 29 percent in mid-July — would form a two-way coalition with the Greens or need to bring in the conservative Free Democrats (FDP) to build a stable majority. 

Since then, the Christian Democrats have suffered a spectacular collapse in the polls as their candidate, party leader Armin Laschet, has been plagued by a series of gaffes, strategic errors and plain old bad luck. As a result, pollsters say, the CDU appears to have lost around one-third of its voters, who supported the party because of Angela Merkel. 

“Merkel managed to secure these voters without them really embracing the party’s ideology,” said Hermann Binkert, the head of the INSA polling institute. “When that element disappears, disruption isn’t long in coming.” 

Germany’s political junkies are no longer debating what coalition the Christian Democrats will lead but whether, after 16 years under Merkel, the center-right will be in government at all. In a spate of recent polls, the Social Democrats (SPD), a party long believed left for dead, have been in first place, buoyed by the growing popularity of the man at the top of their ticket, Olaf Scholz, finance minister and vice chancellor in the current coalition between the CDU, its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the SPD.

Since mid-July, the SPD has jumped 8 percentage points to 24 percent in POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, while the CDU/CSU bloc has fallen 8 percentage points.  

Meanwhile, the Greens, who overtook the Christian Democrats for a brief period in April, rising as high as 25 percent, have slumped back below the 20 percent mark and are in third place. 

The SPD’s surge is more the result of what its competitors have got wrong, rather than what it has got right, said Isabelle Borucki, a political scientist at the University of Siegen. 

“For the moment, the SPD is in a very comfortable position, provided these polling numbers remain stable and are reflected in the actual election results,” she said. 

At a time of turmoil around the world, the SPD, Germany’s oldest party, represents something of a security blanket for voters skeptical about handing the reins to Laschet, the down-to-earth premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s biggest state, or to the Greens’ inexperienced candidate, Annalena Baerbock. 

What does it all mean? Barring another dramatic swing in voter attitudes, Germany is headed toward a three-way coalition for the first time since the 1950s. What isn’t clear is who will lead the alliance and which parties will be in it. 

Just about the only thing one can say for certain is that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is supported by about 11 percent of voters according to recent polling, will not be part of the government for the simple reason that the other parties have ruled out cooperating with them. 

In addition to the three largest parties (SPD, CDU/CSU and the Greens), there are the FDP and the Left, a populist leftist movement formed out of the ashes of the former East German communist party. 

To help navigate the coalition calculus, the German media have devised an unofficial shorthand (embracing national stereotypes), based on the parties’ traditional colors. Below is a description of the potential combinations, with the pros and cons of each scenario securing a stable majority.

The parties’ colors are as follows: CDU/CSU = black; SPD = red; Greens = green; FDP = yellow; Left = dark red.

Jamaica 

So-named because the parties’ colors — black, green, yellow — would correspond to those of the Jamaican flag. If the Christian Democrats place first, a Jamaica alliance is considered by many to be the most likely coalition. After eight years of the current “grand coalition,” both the CDU and the SPD are keen to end their collaboration. In addition to the chancellory, the expectation is that the CDU/CSU would control the economy ministry, the Greens would get a beefed-up environmental portfolio and the foreign office, and the FDP would run the finance ministry. 

Pros: The alliance would have a big majority in the Bundestag and an appetite for major reform in key areas such as the environment and transport.  

Cons: The ideological differences between the Greens and the other two parties are significant in areas such as taxation and EU integration, especially with the FDP, which would likely trigger infighting within the coalition. After the last election in 2017, these three groups initially did try to form a coalition, until FDP leader Christian Lindner pulled out.

Traffic light

A coalition between the SPD, the FDP and the Greens, many observers believe this option is the likely outcome if the Social Democrats edge out the CDU/CSU for first place. With polls showing most Germans oppose the inclusion of the Left party in government, this combination would likely enjoy broad support. 

Pros: Big parliamentary majority and broad public support. 

Cons: Strong cultural and policy differences between the two left-of-center parties (SPD and Greens) and the FDP, especially on key issues such as taxes and deficit spending. FDP base would bristle at cooperation with the other two parties. 

R2G

Short for “red, red, green,” this trio would be the most left-leaning of the available options. 

Pros: Ideological coherence on core issues such as taxes, social welfare and refugee policy. 

Cons: Slim parliamentary majority, big differences between the Left, which wants to exit NATO, and the other two on a number of foreign policy fronts, including Russia and the transatlantic relationship. Biggest worry: the coalition would risk deep polarization in German society. 

Mickey Mouse

Also known as the “Deutschland” coalition because the colors (black, red, yellow) correspond to those of the German flag as well as the clothes worn by Disney’s famous mouse. A centrist coalition with a big majority in the Bundestag, Mickey Mouse would be the closest alternative to the current grand coalition. That’s the main reason it’s unlikely. 

Pros: A consensus coalition with broad public support. 

Cons: Longstanding ideological differences would lead to preserving the status quo instead of pursuing ambitious reforms in areas such as environmental policy, Europe and the economy. 

Kenya

A grand coalition plus one trio, Kenya would unite the CDU/CSU and SPD with the Greens. The best chance for this scenario would be if the SPD finishes in first and the Christian Democrats are willing to play second fiddle. But that’s a big if. 

Pros: Big, moderate majority in the Bundestag without much potential for deep conflict within the coalition. 

Cons: As with Mickey Mouse, Kenya is effectively a continuation of the grand coalition that would likely result in the same lack of ambition that has characterized the past several years.