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A new conflict involving Iran is sending shockwaves through the global food system, threatening to undermine food security for millions. According to a World Bank report, the crisis is severely disrupting the production and distribution of fertiliser—a cornerstone of modern agriculture. This has driven farmers’ costs to their highest point in four years, creating a precarious situation. The turmoil is not merely a regional issue; it is severing vital international export routes and creating a supply squeeze with worldwide ramifications. European agriculture ministers are already sounding the alarm, calling for urgent intervention to prevent a prolonged crisis. Their concern extends to safeguarding not just current supplies, but next year’s vital grain harvests, indicating a fear of deeper, more systemic disruption.
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At the core of this agricultural emergency is a simple but powerful link: energy is food. Natural gas is the primary ingredient for nitrogen-based fertilisers. Consequently, the soaring price of gas, driven by geopolitical instability, translates directly into skyrocketing costs for the fertilisers farmers depend on. As explained by industry group Fertilisers Europe, “fertilizers are energy, so when energy costs rise, automatically fertiliser costs rise.” While Europe currently maintains adequate supplies due to strong domestic production and strategic imports, the financial pressure on farmers is immense. They are operating on razor-thin margins within a complex regulatory landscape, and this new shock threatens to push many to the brink, necessitating reinforced support from EU institutions.
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The situation is far more dire beyond European borders. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) warns of a severe and accelerating fertiliser crisis across Asia and the Global South. Critical shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime chokepoint—are triggering significant shortages. Nations like India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Sudan, along with swathes of Sub-Saharan Africa, are facing a toxic combination of elevated costs and reduced availability. For these regions, already vulnerable to food insecurity and high inflation, the consequences are immediate and severe. The FAO’s Food Price Index is rising in response, signalling that broader increases in the cost of basic staples are on the horizon, which could force already strained governments to enact painful economic policies.
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Looking ahead, the most alarming threat is to future harvests. Experts from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) warn that if high costs force farmers to reduce fertiliser application during crucial planting periods, the result will be significantly lower crop yields in the coming seasons. This potential drop in production poses a direct risk to global grain stocks. In Europe, the immediate concern is precisely this: protecting the yield of next year’s crops. Therefore, even without a current physical shortage, coordinated action is needed to stabilise the market and shield farmers from crippling input costs. The goal is to prevent a short-term price shock from morphing into a multi-year production crisis.
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In response to this looming threat, European industry leaders are advocating for a fundamental strategic shift. They argue that true food security and “strategic autonomy” cannot be limited to supporting farms or ensuring full supermarket shelves. It must extend upstream to secure the essential industrial inputs that make food production possible. Ahead of a planned EU Fertiliser Action Plan, Fertilisers Europe has called for the fertiliser industry itself to be recognised as a strategic pillar of the European Union. This reflects a growing understanding that food system resilience depends on robust, domestic production capacity for its foundational components, insulating it from global volatility.
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The World Bank’s assessment paints a worrying long-term picture: without stabilisation, the world could enter a persistent cycle of high food prices and constrained supply. The regions that would suffer most are those already grappling with poverty and hunger. The report cautions that reduced fertiliser use today plants the seeds for smaller harvests tomorrow, potentially extending and deepening food crises. Ultimately, the secondary effects of the conflict—the disruption of energy markets and the fracturing of fertiliser supply chains—may haunt the global food system long after the immediate military tensions have faded. The crisis underscores that in our interconnected world, geopolitical conflict in one region can swiftly translate into empty bowls in another, demanding urgent, cooperative global action.
