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European markets repeatedly reach new highs despite risks of a US-EU trade war

News RoomBy News RoomFebruary 12, 2025
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1. The Global Context and Historical Performance

The European stock markets have been exceptional this year, with both the Euro Stoxx 600 Index and the DAX consistently reaching new highs, despite the complexities of U.S.-China trade negotiations. These markets have demonstrated resilience, showing continuous gains month after month, which collectively account for over 10% of the year-to-date returns. Meanwhile, markets on the global benchmark averages, such as the Nasdaq, have only gained 1.72%, highlighting the contrast between international equity markets and the performance of the U.S.-(language sector.

2. Trump’s Tariff Threat and European Market Outperformance

The U.S. President, Donald Trump, has been accused of imposing potentially significant tariffs on American goods, including steel and aluminum, following last month’s toxic trade pom represented by DeepSeek. While these tariffs may not despair the U.S.-uced economy, they have had a more profound impact on other regions, particularly Europe. In response to Trump’s actions, the European Commission reaffirmed its stance, jeopardizing trade benefits for either side. Despite this, European companies, particularly those in the auto and tech sectors, have seen gains, driven by increased demand for domestically produced vehicles and improved export capabilities.

3. Europe’s Exceptional Performance and the Textile Sector

The Euro Stoxx 600 and DAX indexes have surged in August, with both indices rising over 1% per week. This outperformance is attributed to an increased focus on European sectors, particularly the automotive and tech industries. The automotive sector has firmed up, with Ford’s CEO warning that 25% tariffs on North American and Mexican metals could "bluff" the US car industry, benefiting European competitors. Meanwhile, the tech sector has surged, driven by exponential growth in global demand for AI-driven companies, which have climbed 8% this year, compared to the tech-heavy U.S. market (XLK), which has seen modest gains.

4. The Role of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Demonstrating Its Potential

The European Central Bank (ECB), expected to lower interest rates by at least another 75 basis points, has bolstered the European technology sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index has experienced a 5% rise, ranking second among global technology benchmark averages. The ECB’s policy stance has provided added funds to Europe’s tech sector, making it a strong component of the current global economy.

5. The U.S.-China Trade Relations and US Tech Performance

The U.S.’s global trade policies, including decreased tariffs on China’s reexported steel and aluminum, have been overtaken by the Chinese government’s emphasis on market access and trade cooperation. Specifically, the potential for upward pressure on inflation has fueled concern, but U.S. interest rates and trading partners’ policies have also been under scrutiny. Despite this, the rise in US tech performance has largely been offset by sudden drops in consumer confidence, particularly after the China-based DeepSeek announced a subscription pricing model that surged to a fraction of previous levels. This trend has hindered US tech’s expansion, even though the company did make a profit.

6. Apple and Blockchain as a Pol洗手enido on European Policies

The U.S.-China trade dynamic has been a significant barrier for U.S. tech manufacturers, as U.S. consumers have invested heavily in digital and blockchain technologies. Moreover, the rising market capitalization of U.S. tech firms has been due to their global dominance in AI and cloud services, which havefce increased profits even as consumer demand for the ecosystem’s platforms has declined rapidly. This dynamic has parallels in other global trade conflicts that have posed significant challenges for U.S.-踬 invatories, particularly as European policymakers have increasingly referred to the U.S. as " hurts it" in their rhetoric.

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