Over the next decade, the global alcohol industry is poised for a significant transformation, one that will reshape drinking habits and market dynamics worldwide. According to a landmark ten-year forecast by the market research firm IWSR, which spans 160 countries, total volumes of alcohol consumed are set on a downward trajectory that will extend past 2031. This decline is already underway, with a reported 2% drop from 2024 to 2025 alone. Perhaps most strikingly, by 2035, total consumption is expected to remain 1% below 2025 levels, even as the global population of legal drinking-age adults grows by 9%. This fundamental shift indicates that the average person worldwide is choosing to drink less, with annual per-capita consumption of pure alcohol forecast to fall by roughly half a liter—equivalent to about two standard bottles of spirits per person over the decade.
This trend is being driven primarily by retreating consumption in some of the world’s largest and most established alcohol markets. In nations traditionally known for their robust drinking cultures, a cultural recalibration is occurring. The United States and China, two of the planet’s biggest alcohol consumers, are each projected to see a dramatic near-one-fifth decline in volumes by 2035. Similarly, in Europe, Germany is expected to record a 14% drop, the United Kingdom a 13% fall, and Japan a 15% decrease. These contractions reflect a complex interplay of factors, including growing health and wellness consciousness, stricter regulations, economic pressures, and changing social attitudes among younger generations who are increasingly moderating their intake or abstaining altogether.
However, the global story is not one of uniform decline. As mature markets cool, several vibrant emerging economies are stepping into the spotlight as engines of growth for the industry. India is forecast to become a powerhouse, with consumption projected to surge by a remarkable 38% between 2025 and 2035, positioning it as the most significant new driver of demand after China. Other countries showing strong growth include Vietnam (15%), Colombia (26%), and Mexico (13%). This geographic rebalancing underscores a diversifying global landscape where cultural norms, rising middle classes, and economic development are creating new hubs of consumption, even as the worldwide total volume gently dips.
The changes are not only geographic but also categorical, revealing a fascinating evolution in what people are choosing to drink. The traditional stalwarts—wine, spirits, and beer—are all expected to see volume declines over the forecast period. Wine faces the steepest drop at 14%, while spirits and beer are projected to fall by 2% and 1%, respectively. In stark contrast, the ready-to-drink (RTD) category, encompassing premixed cocktails and other canned alcoholic beverages, is booming. Globally, RTD volumes are forecast to grow by 17%, building on the milestone achievement of reaching one billion nine-liter cases for the first time in 2025. This category’s success speaks to a demand for convenience, consistent flavor, innovation, and often, a perception of greater moderation compared to pouring spirits.
Industry leaders at IWSR emphasize the profound nature of this transition. Marten Lodewijks, President and Managing Director of IWSR, notes that “2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today.” This sentiment is echoed by Luke Tegner, IWSR Head of Consulting, who, commenting on the RTD boom, stated, “there is no sign of this trend abating anytime soon.” These insights point to an industry at an inflection point, where success will depend less on pushing volume in traditional ways and more on understanding nuanced regional trends, catering to evolving consumer preferences for quality and convenience over quantity, and navigating a more health-conscious public discourse.
In conclusion, the global alcohol industry is navigating a period of profound and paradoxical change. While overall consumption is gently declining, the map of the drinking world is being redrawn, with growth surging in new regions even as it retreats in old strongholds. Simultaneously, the very definition of a “drink” is evolving, with convenient, modern RTDs capturing market share from classic categories. This paints a picture of a future where moderation, choice, and regional specificity become paramount. The companies that thrive will be those that can adapt to this fragmented and dynamic new reality, recognizing that the era of universal, volume-driven growth is giving way to a more complex and selective global marketplace.
