The crude oil prices experienced a three-day decline on Thursday, driven by the appearance of US-Iran nuclear talks and concerns about the potential return of oil supply from Iran. While the situation remains volatile, geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors continue to compound the uncertainty surrounding oil price volatility. In France, the price has terminals operated at the highest level since July 2024, but prices have been trading below their 50-day moving average, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand.
Supply concerns emerge as OPEC+ pushing for an increased production hike in July, despite estimates of a third consecutive year of oversupplied conditions. This decision, made fastened by US-China trade tensions and renewed selling of US Treasuries, is adding to the pressure on the market. Analysts also noted that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, are reining in supply but overshadowing its potential to accelerate production growth. The UN confirmed its stance on Iran’s nuclear program, further bol sinking supply concerns.
On Wednesday, US crude inventories surged to their highest level since July 2024, reaching 443.2 million barrels. This rise, attributed to a 411porter increase in July, was bolstered by a three-fold rise of net production in May. Meanwhile, net US crude imports also increased for the third consecutive week, as global demand initially declined but gradually rebounded after the end of last month’s US-China trade talks. The surge in inventories has raised concerns about supply tightness, with sources indicating demand remains a factor tested for several weeks.
OPEC+ has been considering a July production hike, with the group planning to increase output by 411 mbpd to 1,201 mbpd by June 1. The acceleration decision, made in response to recent overproduction by some members, adds another layer of uncertainty to oil market dynamics. Analysts noted that faster-than-expected production hikes, particularly in April and May, have already led to a more consistent decline in prices.
Demand outlook remains fragile, with price drops to their four-year lows on 9 April and 5 May underscoring the compounded pressure on OPEC+ and global supply chains. While prices dropped further amid US-China trade tensions and hurdles in US tariff negotiations, the inability of OPEC+ to impose strict production curbs has highlighted supply issues. Functions diagrams and other data show that ongoing challenges persist, with market participants cautious about a potential recovery in demand. However, the immediate financial呈丢了，交易员迅速升级谨慎，以为美元的抵消对伊朗可能会施加压力。
