Based on preliminary exit poll data, the political landscape of Andalusia appears poised for continuity rather than change, with a clear signal emanating from Spain’s most populous region. The survey conducted by Sigma Dos for Canal Sur strongly suggests that the incumbent president, Juanma Moreno of the Popular Party (PP), is on track to secure a second term, and crucially, to do so with an absolute majority. The poll projects his party will win between 56 and 59 seats in the regional parliament, comfortably surpassing the 55-seat threshold needed to govern alone. This result would mirror the 58 seats the PP held in the outgoing legislature, granting Moreno a powerful and autonomous mandate for another four years, free from the need for negotiation or coalition-building. Such an outcome underscores a consolidation of the political shift that began in 2019, when the PP ended the Socialist Party’s nearly four-decade-long dominance in the southern region.
For the Socialist Party (PSOE), the projected numbers paint a picture of continued struggle and historical setback. Led by former finance minister and deputy prime minister María Jesús Montero, the party is predicted to win only 26 to 29 seats, a figure that would fall below its already record-low tally of 30. This suggests that Montero’s high-profile entry into the campaign, while still serving in the national government, failed to reverse the party’s fortunes or energize its traditional base. The PP successfully centred its campaign attacks on Montero, linking her both to the perceived fatigue with the national government led by Pedro Sánchez and to various corruption investigations swirling around the Socialist party. A defeat here, in what was once an unassailable socialist stronghold, would be profoundly symbolic and a significant blow to the party’s morale and strategic standing ahead of future national contests.
The election night holds less dramatic shifts for the other political forces, according to the exit poll, but still reveals important nuances. Vox, the far-right party, is expected to remain largely stable with 13 to 15 seats, showing no significant growth that would make it a decisive kingmaker in this instance—a role it has played in other regional governments. To its left, the Por Andalucía alliance seems set to hover around its current representation, while the potential surprise of the evening could be Adelante Andalucía, which might double its seats from 2 to 4 or 5. Although these are preliminary figures, the overall direction indicates a political scene solidifying around a dominant PP, a diminished but still main opposition PSOE, and a stabilized far-right presence, with smaller left-wing alliances scrambling for marginal gains.
The significance of this Andalusian election extends far beyond the region’s borders, serving as a critical political barometer for all of Spain. Taking place in a context of weariness with the national government and amidst high-profile corruption scandals, the vote is being intensely scrutinized for clues about the public mood ahead of the next general election, due in 2027. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo framed the contest as a dual opportunity: to cement the political change in Andalusia and to strengthen the national alternative to Sánchez’s administration. Conversely, Prime Minister Sánchez campaigned vigorously for Montero, framing the election as a bulwark against the entry of Vox into another regional government. The results, therefore, are read as a verdict on both regional management and national politics.
The practical implications of the vote are immense, given Andalusia’s considerable self-governing powers. With nearly nine million inhabitants, the region holds major responsibilities in essential areas such as healthcare, education, and housing. A renewed absolute majority for Juanma Moreno would ensure policy continuity in these fields under a centre-right administration, with a firm mandate to pursue its agenda without compromise. This electoral test within Spain’s decentralised system demonstrates a sustained preference for the PP’s governance model in the region, potentially influencing policy debates and political confidence at the national level.
As polling stations closed, the day was marked by high stakes and symbolic gestures from all candidates. Voter turnout, including over 163,000 advance votes, reflected the engagement in this decisive contest. From Moreno casting his ballot in Málaga with his wife, to Montero in Seville urging voters not to stay home, to other candidates like José Ignacio García of Adelante Andalucía voting with his mother in Jerez de la Frontera, the human face of democracy was on display. While the final, official results will provide the definitive word, the exit poll tells a compelling story of consolidation, rejection, and a region that has firmly established a new political normal, setting the stage for the next chapter in Spanish politics.
