The story of synthetic fertiliser is a story of modern humanity itself. Developed just over a century ago by German scientists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch, the industrial process to create ammonia—the key ingredient in nitrogen fertiliser—fundamentally reshaped our world. It is no exaggeration to say that half the people alive today owe their existence to this breakthrough, which freed agriculture from the limits of natural soil fertility and supported unprecedented global population growth. For Europe, this innovation was a source of immense strategic advantage, cementing its leadership in science and industry. Yet today, the very same process that once secured Europe’s prosperity has become a source of profound vulnerability, tying the foundation of our food system to the volatile fortunes of fossil fuels.
This dependency creates a triad of escalating risks: economic, geopolitical, and environmental. At its core, conventional ammonia production uses vast quantities of natural gas as a feedstock to produce hydrogen. Consequently, when gas prices spike, as they did following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fertiliser production becomes cripplingly expensive. In 2022, with European gas prices soaring more than tenfold, nearly 70% of the continent’s ammonia production capacity was forced offline, severely undermining industrial competitiveness and sending shockwaves through the entire agricultural value chain. Geopolitically, Europe’s eroding manufacturing base forces it to import fertilisers from global powers like China, Russia, and the United States, creating a paradoxical new dependency. We are essentially importing nutrients produced elsewhere using the same fossil fuels we seek to avoid, reminiscent of the pre-Haber-Bosch era when Europe relied on precarious nitrate imports from Chile.
The environmental cost of this status quo is staggering and unsustainable. Global ammonia production emits approximately 450 million tonnes of CO₂ annually—equivalent to twice Spain’s total yearly emissions. Therefore, decarbonising fertiliser production is not merely a climate obligation; it is a fundamental prerequisite for building a long-term resilient food system. The confluence of these pressures—sky-high energy costs, fraught geopolitical supply lines, and urgent climate targets—has made one thing clear: Europe’s continued reliance on natural gas for its food security is no longer viable. The continent stands at a crossroads, facing a strategic imperative to innovate or accept increasing exposure to external shocks.
Recognising this, Europe has begun to explore pathways like green ammonia, which uses hydrogen produced from renewable electricity. However, this route demands a massive, expensive, and time-consuming build-out of entirely new hydrogen infrastructure. More promising are emerging technological breakthroughs that could change the equation entirely. A new generation of processes aims to produce nitrogen-based fertilisers directly from air, water, and clean electricity, potentially bypassing the need for fossil-derived hydrogen altogether. While the technical approaches vary, the vision is unified: to use renewable power to synthesise fertilisers in a manner that is more modular, less polluting, and ultimately more cost-effective and reliable than the century-old incumbent process.
The potential rewards of championing these technologies extend far beyond carbon savings. Success could redistribute fertiliser production, enabling smaller, flexible plants in regions with abundant renewable energy, both within and outside Europe, thereby building more resilient and decentralised supply chains. Crucially for Europe, it offers a path to modernise and future-proof its own industrial heartlands. The chemical sector supports hundreds of thousands of skilled jobs in regions anxious about the energy transition. By nurturing this next wave of innovation, Europe can uplift this vital industrial base, protecting jobs and sovereignty, rather than witnessing a slow exodus of its fertiliser industry to other shores. The first step is bold public support for pilot and demonstration plants to bridge the gap between laboratory promise and commercial reality.
Europe now has the chance to write a new chapter in its industrial story. By strategically investing in the next generation of fertiliser production, it can address its vulnerabilities in one coordinated move: shielding farmers and industry from volatile gas markets, securing its food and nutrient sovereignty, cutting a major source of industrial emissions, and safeguarding high-value jobs. This is about more than clean technology; it is about reclaiming strategic autonomy and building systemic resilience. The original Haber-Bosch process defined an era of European leadership. Now, by harnessing its enduring strengths in engineering, chemistry, and manufacturing for a new purpose, Europe’s next Haber-Bosch moment is within reach.
